Monthly Archives: September 2009

Vikings to test Packers’ offensive line

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Hardcore football fans will have to dig deep this week to find storylines on Monday’s matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers that don’t involve Brett Favre.

It’s been well-publicized already that this is Favre’s first game against his former Green Bay Packers teammates. That talk is wearing me out already.

I’m going to try to steer clear of that stuff here – well, at least until Monday anyway – and stick to something that might actually matter. There is a game being played.

The biggest test the Packers face will be trying to block Minnesota’s defensive line. Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers – a popular choice for MVP before the season started – has been sacked an astounding 12 times this season. To put that in some perspective, no NFL team has registered more than 10 sacks so far this season.

The Vikings have recorded eight sacks so far this season, putting them among the league leaders. And it’s well-known how good their defensive tackles are against the run.

Can the Packers offensive line protect Rodgers long enough to allow him to be productive? We’ll find out Monday.

Doubleheader thoughts

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Here’s my take on the Minnesota Twins’ splitting a doubleheader Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers, leaving the Twins still two games back in the AL Central race:

  • Nick Blackburn did a nice job in Game 1, ducking trouble in the early innings before settling into a nice groove. This was a big game for him, probably the second-biggest start of his young career, ranking right after the one-game playoff start he got against the Chicago White Sox last year. On both occassions, he held the opponent in check.
  • The Nick Punto suicide squeeze in the ninth inning of Game 1 is inexcusable. I hated the play. And of course, if it works, it’s applauded. But with a runner on third and one out in a tie game in the ninth inning, if you can’t find a way to drive that run in there’s something wrong with you. Punto did what he could; I certainly don’t blame him.
  • Jon Rauch did a nice job of pitching around the leadoff walk in the ninth, giving the Twins a chance to win the game in the 10th inning. I know I’ve mentioned it before, but I like the way this bullpen is going to shape up for 2010. The Twins got Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Rauch. Not a bad four to start with.
  • Expected a better outing from Brian Duensing in Game 2 after he shut the Tigers down just a week or two ago. He’s done a nice job this season as a starter, but he’s starting to show some chinks in his armor.
  • Nice to see the Twins battle back against Justin Verlander, who thoroughly dominated them through the first five innings. Watching him make Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez look silly on high fastball after high fastball continues to leave me wondering how the Twins could have gotten so little for Johan Santana, Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett.
  • I really didn’t understand Guerrier facing Curtis Granderson to open the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 2 with Mijares still available, and I did say as much before he homered. Yeah, Mijares pitched in Game 1, but just to a couple of batters. Guerrier has been one of the best middle relievers in baseball this season, but Granderson is hitting under .200 against lefties this year, and he’s a full 100 points better against righties. It seemed like a no-brainer spot to put Mijares in. Unfortuately, Granderson’s homer put the Tigers up by 2, and with the Twins managing just a run in the ninth, the Guerrier decision proved costly.

One other Twins story that caught my eye was the Twins reportedly agreeing to terms with free-agent Dominican teenage shortstop Miguel Angel Sano to a rich signing bonus.

"I’m very thankful to get this chance to sign with the Twins," Sano told the Associated Press. "I’m going to work very hard to try to get to the majors in two years."

There’s much being done to confirm Sano’s age. He claims to be 16 years old, but according to the story is much more physically developed than the typical 16-year-old.

The story does mention if the Twins do get this guy and he is 16 or near that, he will easily be the biggest prospect the Twins have ever had from Latin America.

I’ve mentioned on this blog before that I was concerned that the Twins seemingly don’t develop any prospects through the minor leagues from outside the draft, other than those they trade for. It’s nice to see them make a commitment to someone that wasn’t acquired through the draft. Sounds like he has first-round talent, so why not pay him first-round money?

Pavano’s surge could pay off for Twins in another way

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One of my favorite sites during baseball’s offseason – MLBtraderumors.com – posted some updated Elias rankings.

The Elias rankings – compiled through a complicated formula I don’t really understand – determine which free agents will be classified as Type A and Type B free agents in the offseason, thus determining whether teams get a first-round and a compensatory pick for a Type A, or a compensatory pick for Type B, or nothing at all.

Here is the updated list.

The reason I post this is if you click on starting pitchers, you’ll see that Twins pitcher and free-agent-to-be Carl Pavano has now moved up into the final Type B slot in these projects, which means if he rejects arbitration this offseason, the Twins would get a draft pick between the first and second rounds.

Twins shortstop Orlando Cabrera is also among those worth compensation, but he has a clause in his contract denying his team – at the time the Oakland A’s – of collecting on such compensation, making him more enticing to other teams when he becomes a free agent this offseason. After what happened this past offseason, I think that type of clause could become more prevelant.

Also note that the Elias projections are for everyone, so while Joe Mauer is listed No. 1 among catchers by a wide margin, he is not going to be a free agent this offseason. Everyone is listed on there.

Twins face Tigers in 4-game set for all the marbles … probably

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As many times as the Minnesota Twins have been counted out this season, it’s hard to pinpoint any series and say the Twins have to do such-and-such to make the playoffs. But in all likelihood, the four-game series at Detroit starting Monday is make-or-break time.

The Twins enter Monday two games behind the Tigers in the AL Central, managing not to lose any ground after dropping Sunday’s game to AL Cy Young Award frontrunner Zack Greinke and the Kansas City Royals.

Let’s take a look at the matchups:

  • Monday: Twins RHP Nick Blackburn (11-11) vs. Tigers RHP Rick Porcello (14-9)
  • Tuesday: Twins LHP Brian Duensing (5-1) vs. Tigers RHP Justin Verlander (17-9)
  • Wednesday: Twins RHP Carl Pavano (13-11) vs. Tigers RHP Eddie Bonine (0-1)
  • Thursday: Twins RHP Scott Baker (14-9) vs. Tigers LHP Nate Robertson (2-2)

The Twins should like the final two matchups of this four-game series, though I said the same thing a couple weeks ago when Baker was up against Robertson, and that ended with a Tigers’ victory.

Baker has been a stud in the second half, but he has given up four runs in each of this last two starts. Pavano, meanwhile, has been a Tigers’ killer all season long. He’s now 4-0 against the Tigers this year with a 1.69 ERA.

Blackburn has had quality starts in four his last five appearances, and Duensing has been dynamite since joining the rotation. However, Porcello and Verlander are tough matchups for the Twins, who prior to Sunday’s game were on fire offensively.

And, of course, the Vikings …

I’m a Twins guy first, but I can’t write a blog post today without mentioning the Minnesota Vikings’ last-second win over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday in their home opener.

Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, was talking about Brett Favre on Sunday. And it’s understandable.

That throw to Greg Lewis in the back of the end zone for the winning touchdown was the single reason the Vikings wanted Favre. They trusted a veteran quarterback to make a throw like that, and Favre came through for them.

There was a lot of great football on Sunday.

Tune into WDAY 970-AM at 1 p.m. Monday for Sports Talk

I’ll be filling in on "Sports Talk" on 970-AM from 1-2 p.m. Monday. No doubt we’ll be talking NDSU football, the Vikings, the Twins and whatever else colleagues Jeff Kolpack and Eric Peterson have on their minds.

Feel free to call in. The number in the metro area is (701) 293-9000.

Weekend football thoughts

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Random thoughts on Saturday’s results and Sunday’s upcoming games:

Saturday’s college results

  • North Dakota State hung with Southern Illinois throughout the game, but they just couldn’t muster enough consistent offense as the Bison lost 24-14. Pat Paschall ran all over the Salukis just as he has done all season, but the passing game was unimpressive. Defense managed to contain Southern Illinois’ formidable rushing attack.
  • As expected, the University of Minnesota got locked into a shootout with Northwestern. But this time around, the Gophers prevailed. Minnesota had suffered crushing defeats to the Wildcats in the previous couple of seasons, but not on Saturday. Duane Bennett had a nice game for the previously dormant Gophers’ rushing attack. And Eric Decker continues to be ridiculous. He got absolutely ROBBED of a highlight reel catch in that game.
  • I was happy to see my alma mater, Minnesota State Moorhead, pulled out a victory on homecoming. Coming into the week, I saw a quote from Dragons running back Enol Gilles acknowledging that Minnesota-Crookston always gets geared up for the Dragons. But MSUM managed to pull out the victory thanks to a nice game from freshman quarterback Zach Fry.

Sunday’s NFL outlook

  • The world will find out on Sunday if the San Francisco 49ers are for real. The undefeated Niners face the undefeated Minnesota Vikings at noon today. The 49ers have been led by a strong rushing attack – thanks to Frank Gore – and a strong run defense. This game should be a battle, as the Vikings boast the same attributes. My guess is Adrian Peterson will get the best of the Niners and Minnesota wins. I’ll say a score of 27-14.
  • Of course, I’ll be keeping an eye on the Chicago Bears’ game against the Seattle Seahawks. I like the Bears chances, especially with Matt Hasselbeck listed as doubtful to play. I’ll say Bears 20-9 in a field-goal fest.
  • The best game on the slate has got to be the Atlanta Falcons vs. the New England Patriots. This is new school vs. old school. The Patriots are the NFL’s old guard right now, while the Falcons are the up-and-comers. Tom Brady or Matt Ryan? Coming off a loss to the New York Jets, I’m going to take the Patriots. They can’t lose two in a row, can they? Plus, they’re at home. I usually give the nod to the home team in great matchups like this. I’ll go Pats 31, Falcons 21.

Analyzing the “What’s wrong with Joe Nathan?” talk

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We didn’t get far along talking Minnesota Twins baseball on the "Sports Talk" radio program on WDAY 970-AM on Thursday before a couple of callers started asking, "What’s wrong with closer Joe Nathan?" or "Does Joe Nathan make you nervous too?"

Now, before entering into such a discussion, I think a couple of facts have to be acknowledged from the get-go:

  • Any ninth-inning save situation is going to be a nail-biter. That comes with the territory, so you’re always going to be nervous, whether it’s Eddie Guardado closing it out or Cy Young himself.
  • Nathan is one of the premier – if not the premier – closers in the game. Really, who else is in his class? Mariano Rivera. Jonathan Papelbon. Jonathan Broxton. That’s about it. And I’m not sure I wouldn’t take Nathan over any of those guys. I probably would.

As far as Nathan goes, most people who wonder whether or not he’s at his best – including myself – point to the 53-pitch outing he had against the Kansas City Royals on Aug. 21 as the beginning of his so-called troubles. It was a brutal outing, but only by Nathan’s standards: 2 IPs, 4 Hs, 1 ER, and ultimately, a blown save. And that’s a lot of pitches by Nathan’s standards, too.

The numbers dating back to Aug. 21 are: 16 games, 16.1 innings, 13 Hs, 7 ERs, 10 BBs, 22 Ks.

Not too shabby, really. Only two blown saves, including the Aug. 21 appearance. That’s good for a 3.86 ERA over that stretch, which is about a run higher than his career ERA, but still nothing to sound the alarms over. And 22 strikeouts in 16.1 innings? Well, it’s tough to beat that.

If any two numbers over those 16 appearances stand out to me, it’s the 10 walks and the four homers allowed.

  • First, the walks. That’s roughly 5.5 walks per 9 innings, much higher than his career average of 3.5 BBs/9 IPs. In none of his previous three seasons, he’s reached 20 walks in a season, so 10 in 16 appearances is much higher than Twins fans are used to.
  • And for Nathan to give up four homers in 16 games is unusual, too. On average, he’s given up just four homers per season in his previous five seasons. He’s given up six this season now, his highest total since joining the Twins in an offseason trade prior to the 2004 season.

Back to the question, "What’s wrong with Joe Nathan?" Well, there’s definitely some trends in his recent performances that by his standards are unusual. In this 16-game stretch, he’s given up a season’s worth of homers and issued walks at a 60 percent higher clip than he normally does in his career.

There are a number of possible explanations for this. He could just be suffering from fatigue, or maybe there’s something mechanically wrong. Some suggest his confidence is shaken, but I think he’s wiggled out of far too many jams for that to be the case. Let’s remember, he’s only blown two saves in those 16 games. And it’s quite possible too that nothing is wrong with him, that maybe it’s just an anomaly.

But Nathan, even when he’s not at his best, is still better than 90 percent of the closers in baseball.

Twins keep losing players, but keep winning

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Somehow, the Minnesota Twins keep winning games. On Tuesday, they did so not only without former AL MVP Justin Morneau, but also without outfielder Denard Span.

Span, who was beaned in the head during Monday’s victory over the Chicago White Sox, was benched Tuesday in what sounds like a precautionary measure.

Twins manager Ron Gardenhire says Span is day-to-day.

Tuesday’s 8-6 win saw home runs from both likely (Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel) and unlikely sources (Orlando Cabrera and Matt Tolbert), powering Minnesota to a win despite a rough outing from starting pitcher Jeff Manship.

The Twins remain 2.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central division race. They wrap up their series with Chicago on Wednesday before a day off Thursday, then a series in Kansas City against the resurgent Royals.

I have to admit I’m surprised the Twins have managed to win eight of their last nine games without Morneau, and now without Span. The losses of both players have led to more playing time for the likes of Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, both of whom sport on-base percentages below .300.

One of the more startling stats I’ve heard all season occurred Monday night, when Fox Sports Net broadcaster Dick Bremer pointed out that Young has walked 11 times this season. ELEVEN! Can you believe that?

To put Young’s season walk total in perspective, during a 15-game stretch from Aug. 9-24, Span walked 12 times.

At this hour of the night, I don’t have the desire to track down who has the worst walk/AB ratio in baseball, but I’d be stunned if it wasn’t Young. He will never live up to his No. 1 overall draft pick billing if he doesn’t learn the slightest bit of discipline at the plate.

Baseball history is littered with likes of Young, guys who have all the potential in the world but seemingly can’t figure out what it takes to be an effective big league hitter. This is one sport you can’t get by on physical gifts alone.

And that’s why it’s surprising to see the Twins doing this well. Of course, on any given night a team can crank out eight runs. But you don’t exactly want to replace Span’s .388 OBP with Young’s paltry .289 for any extended period of time.

Gophers open up Big Ten play with concerns

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After three intriguing nonconference games (Greg Paulus’ football debut, TCF opener and No. 8 Cal), the University of Minnesota football team opens Big Ten Conference play at 11 a.m. Saturday at Northwestern.

The Gophers stand at 2-1, having beaten Syracuse and Air Force before losing to No. 8 Cal last weekend.

I didn’t catch any of the Air Force game, but after watching the Syracuse and Cal games, there are a few issues this team has to be concerned with:

  • Lack of a consistent running game. The Gophers have leaned on the passing game far too much in the first three games of the season, simply because they can’t consistently pick up yards on the ground. This team is a far cry from the ones led by Marion Barber and Laurence Maroney earlier this decade.
  • Offensive line protection. Anyone else find it alarming that, with the Gophers down 14 points in the fourth quarter against Cal, Adam Weber seemed to have no time to throw the football when the Bears were rushing just three or four linemen? That can’t continue.
  • Eric Decker gets banged up. Decker is a huge part of this offense, so the Gophers can ill afford to have him hampered by the ankle injury he suffered near the end of Saturday’s loss. Decker reportedly was running with the team on Sunday.
  • Allowing five rushing TDs in a game? Yikes! I know it’s one of the top tailbacks in the country in Jahvid Best. Still, the Gophers have to bounce back from that. I doubt Northwestern will provide as much trouble.

The anxiety of facing the Lions

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With Week 2 of the NFL season upon us, the Minnesota Vikings travel to the Motor City to face the Detroit Lions.

The Lions became the first team in NFL history to go 0-16 last season, and so far Detroit is 0-1.

In anticipation of the NFL season a couple months back, I remember hopping online to see when my favorite team was scheduled to play the Lions. I doubt I was alone in doing so.

I wrote one of our section’s new-fangled mini-columns on the subject today. It’s hard to say there are must-win games this time of year, but no team wants to snap Detroit’s 18-game losing streak.

I’m not the type of guy who thinks a Week 2 loss could ruin a season, but losing to the Lions has as good of chance as any to do that. It’s the game no team wants to play in.

It’s a no-win situation, because even if you beat the Lions, expectations are so high that a team’s fan base probably won’t be satisfied with anything less than putting up six touchdown passes. That’s what the New Orleans Saints did to Detroit in Week 1.

I made the comment at work Saturday that these Lions could be worse than last year’s, simply because there’s a rookie at quarterback in a situation where a rookie QB can’t possibly succeed. That was probably an exaggeration considering that Dan Orlovsky started for Detroit last season, but still. They can’t be much better.

That’s not to say the Lions won’t win a game this year; I’m certain they’ll win at least one. Let’s not forget that a lot of things went horribly wrong for Detroit last year that led to a winless season, including two close losses to the Vikings (with Orlovsky’s famous safety play), at least one to the Bears, and a complete meltdown against the Packers. The Lions were actually leading Green Bay in the middle of the fourth quarter of a game, and somehow found a way to lose by like 20 points.

It’s an unenviable situation for the Vikings. I’m sure they’ll be more than satisfied to just get this game over with, because the scrutiny that comes with losing to the Lions would be a lot to overcome.

Anyway, enjoy your Sunday. I can’t wait to keep an eye on the Twins-Tigers game too.

Could you imagine if the Twins actually made the playoffs and ended up facing the Yankees in the first round without Justin Morneau? Jose Morales as an everyday DH? How about fielding the Matt Tolbert/Brian Buscher platoon at third base at Yankee Stadium? Brian Duensing matched up against CC Sabathia? Carl Pavano getting a chance at revenge against the Evil Empire? It’s like straight from the script of Major League, with Carlos Gomez starring as Willie "Mays" Hayes. How can you not root for that?