MLB: Contenders or pretenders

I hope everyone is enjoying their Memorial Day weekends.

As the month of May winds down, I thought it would be a good time to look at some of the surprises in Major League Baseball so far. Can you believe we’re almost a third of the way into the season?

Anyway, here are my thoughts on a few of baseball’s “surprise” teams:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (29-19, 1st-place tie in AL East)

  • What I like? Very strong up the middle with Adam Jones in center, J.J. Hardy at shortstop and Matt Wieters behind the dish. Jones is a seven-year veteran who has never posted an OPS above .800. But this year, he already has 15 homers to go with a .308 average, a .944 OPS and his usual solid defense. Hardy has 10 homers already to go with Gold Glove defense. And Wieters, once dubbed “Mauer with power”, has been that and more. His average is lagging, but he has eight homers and controls the opponents running game very well.
  • What I don’t like? The AL East. That division has never had room for one-year wonders, and I’m not totally convinced that Baltimore is like Tampa Bay and here to stay.
  • What do I think? The Angels are surging in the AL West, so I still think that division gets a wild card, leaving one for the AL East. My gut tells me Tampa Bay and the Yankees will be playoff-bound once again.

CLEVELAND INDIANS (26-21, 1st place in AL Central)

  • What I like? Everyone thought the AL Central this year had the Detroit Tigers and a cast of also-rans. But not so fast, my friend. The Tribe are up a half-game on the Chicago White Sox heading into Monday. Cleveland ranks in the top five in on-base percentage. But what I like about this team is its defense, especially in the infield with Jack Hannahan, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jason Kipnis and Casey Kotchman. The corner-infield defense kind of reminds me of Twins teams from 10 years ago.
  • What I don’t like? Not a lot of punch on this team. Where does the offense come from? There’s certainly some good professional hitters that no what they’re doing at the plate like Kotchman, Cabrera, Johnny Damon and Travis Hafner. But other than Hafner when he’s healthy, not much scares you offensively. Young catcher Carlos Santana just landed on the DL.
  • What do I think? I think I like many overrated the Tigers coming into the season, although there’s still plenty of time for that Motor City machine to get going offensively. But I’ve reached the point where I can see the Indians or White Sox challenging for the division title. 

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (29-18, 1st place in NL East)

  • What I like? Some people saw the Nats coming this year (i.e. WDAY’s Dom Izzo). I thought it was a year early. But here they are, in first place on Memorial Day in a very tough NL East. The Nats lead the majors with a 2.93 ERA, out Philly-ing the Phillies in that regard. And they have some really nice offensive weapons with the emerging Bryce Harper to go with corner infielder sluggers Ryan Zimmerman and Adam LaRoche. And once Drew Storen gets healthy, they figure to have plenty of potent back-of-the-bullpen options.
  • What I don’t like? This is new territory for the players and the organization. You have to remember that the last time the Nationals franchise made the postseason was 1981 when they were the Montreal Expos. I’m not worried about this team now, but what about the September grind.
  • What do I think? The Phillies are over .500, but still in last place in this division. I think even when Ryan Howard and Chase Utley return, the Phillies will have their hands full. There could be a changing of the guard in the NL East, and I am finally starting to think the Nationals at the very least will get a wild-card spot.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (32-15, 1st place in NL West)

  • What I like? This was the only team among the four listed that I thought would be in the position they’re in. But I realize it’s a surprise to many, especially considering the franchise’s fragile state before new ownership took over. But any time you have an NL Cy Young winner (Clayton Kershaw) and a guy that could have won the MVP (Matt Kemp) as building blocks, you’re off to a good start. Behind Kershaw and resurgent Chris Capuano, the Dodgers have the second-best ERA in baseball at 3.15. And they are third in baseball with a .272 batting average, buoyed by a bounce-back year from Andre Ethier and the outstanding play of catcher A.J. Ellis.
  • What I don’t like? Kenley Jansen has been superb since taking over as the Dodgers closer after Javy Guerra flopped. But I think LA wouldn’t mind adding another bullpen arm to help build a bridge to Jansen, although Josh Lindblom has been fantastic as a set-up man. I’m nitpicking though. There’s really not much that I don’t like, especially once Kemp returns from the DL on Tuesday.
  • What do I think? The Dodgers are here to say. They will win the division.

Where are they now: 2012 Twins rotation

The departure of Jason Marquis and the addition of Cole DeVries to the Minnesota Twins rotation leaves me wondering: Who is left to start games for the Rochester Red Wings?

The Twins parted with the struggling Marquis on Monday and promoted former Gophers standout DeVries to take Marquis’ spot in the rotation. The veteran right-hander exits with an 8.47 ERA over seven starts.

With Marquis out of the picture, the Twins rotation no longer has five of the first six pitchers to make starts for the team this season. And incredibly, only one of those five missing starters is out of the rotation due to injury (Nick Blackburn). Their demotions – if you can call them that – are almost entirely performance-based.

The Twins rotation to open the season:

  • RHP Carl Pavano (9 GS, 2-3, 4.91 ERA)
  • LHP Francisco Liriano (9 G, 6 GS, 0-5, 8.31 ERA)
  • RHP Anthony Swarzak (12 G, 3 GS, 0-3, 4.71 ERA)
  • RHP Nick Blackburn (7 GS, 1-4, 8.37 ERA)
  • RHP Liam Hendriks (4 GS, 0-2, 9.00 ERA)
  • And eventually, RHP Jason Marquis (7 GS, 2-4, 8.47 ERA)

And the current rotation:

  • Pavano
  • LHP Scott Diamond (3 GS, 3-0, 1.40 ERA)
  • RHP P.J. Walters (2 GS, 1-1, 3.65 ERA)
  • RHP Cole DeVries (no stats)
  • To be determined — won’t be needed until Saturday

And that’s how you end up with the worst starting pitchers’ ERA in baseball.

Revisiting a dominant pitching performance

Among the headlines I ran into during my usual morning Internet run was this one:

Kerry Wood will retire after today’s game”

Wood is currently a member of the Chicago Cubs bullpen, and he will call it quits following today’s game against the crosstown rival White Sox.

It’s been a good career for Wood, who has pitched 14 seasons in the major leagues. But like many pro athletes, there will always be a sense of what could have been.

He opened his career as a starter with the Cubs, striking out 233 batters in his rookie season of 1998 in just 166.1 innings, all the while invoking comparisons to Nolan Ryan.

The peak of his career may have been his fifth major league game, when against the Houston Astros as a 21-year-old he tied the major league record of 20 strikeouts in a game.

Having grown up in this part of the country, I watched an awful lot of Chicago Cubs baseball on WGN as a kid.

I remember watching Wood’s performance on WGN that day and thinking, “This is the most dominant pitching performance in history.” Wood was that dominant. The Astros hitters looked silly at time flailing at pitches long after they had struck the mitt of catcher Sandy Martinez.

I’m sure some would argue that a perfect game would have to be the best-pitched game ever. And those people certainly have an argument, which is why I choose to go with “dominant” instead.

The Astros did get two baserunners on that day. Wood beaned Craig Biggio and gave up an infield single to Ricky Gutierrez that a lot of Cubs fans lobbied afterwards to have changed to an error, feeling that third baseman Kevin Orie should have made the play.

Wood went on to miss all of the 1999 season due to injury, but was dominant again shortly thereafter. He struck out a career-high and league-leading 266 batters in 2003, leading the Cubs to the NLCS. By 2006, he was transitioning to the bullpen after battling arm problems again.

Wood may not have gone on to becoming the next Nolan Ryan. But for one day in 1999, he was as good as any pitched has ever been. And that’s what I’ll remember about his career.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDgnfm3NOVY

Diamond, Walters could stick with Twins

When Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters received major league call-ups in the last week, it likely wouldn’t have taken much for the duo to become fixtures in the Twins rotation for the rest of the season. After all, Twins starters entered Sunday’s game with a league-worst 6.57 ERA.

With quality starts quickly becoming an endangered species at Target Field, Diamond and Walters have provided a much-needed boost for the staff and much-needed rest for the bullpen.

Diamond threw seven shutout innings in a Twins’ 4-3 victory against the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday. That came on the heels of Walters’ Twins debut on Saturday, in which he allowed just two runs on six hits in six innings.

Diamond’s 2012 Twins debut was on Tuesday, when he threw seven scoreless innings, yielding four hits and just a walk.

All told, Diamond and Walters’ stats with the Twins: 3 starts, 20 innings, 2 runs allowed (both earned), 15 hits and just one walk allowed.

Both pitchers had been throwing well at Triple-A Rochester, but I was pretty skeptical when Diamond in particular was called up. Both he and Walters are considered to be in the pitch-to-contact mold that had gotten the Twins into this mess of a season to begin with.

But so far, there has been little contact against the two starters. I know I’ll be watching to see how long they can keep it up.

Rays outwork their opponents, and it works

An afternoon glance at the AL East standings shows the Tampa Bay Rays in a tie for first place. It’s hard to believe the day has arrived where that doesn’t surprise anyone.

Five years ago, the Tampa Bay then-Devil Rays lost 96 games and finished in last place in their division for the ninth time in their 10-year history. But the organizational turnaround started to yield on-field results in 2008, when the Rays improved their win total by 31, winning the AL East and advancing to the World Series.

Since 2008, they have finished above .500 each season and made the playoffs in three of those four seasons, despite having to compete with high-revenue juggernauts in Boston and New York for about 20 games apiece per season.

Jonah Keri documents the whole thing quite well in his book “The Extra 2%“, which is absolutely a must-read if you’re a baseball enthusiast like myself. Think of it as a modern-day “Moneyball”.

All of this brings me to a story published on the New York Times’ website yesterday about the Rays and their propensity to shift their defense against opposing hitters.

Very interesting story by Hunter Atkins making the rounds on Twitter today that really goes into detail about something I’ve been talking about all year: The Rays will shift against anyone. And I mean ANYONE.

The Rays have long been ahead of the curve when it comes to shifts. But it seems like they’re taking it to even greater lengths this year than in previous ones.

And I love it. I really do. They’ve done their homework, and baseball analysts and the standings alike show that what they’re doing is saving runs and winning more baseball games.

And while it may seem complicated to manage all of these shifts against all of these different hitters, the basis of it is simple. Manager Joe Maddon and the Rays – by shifting against stars and utility players alike – are outworking every other team in the game. It’s that kind of mentality that’s hard not to rally behind, even if the fans still aren’t showing up in droves to Tampa Bay games.

I’m always amused too when I see – as the story mentions – a guy like Yankees outfielder Nick Swisher call Maddon a “mad scientist.”

There’s nothing mad about it. Some might think what he’s doing is risky. But really, he’s simply managing based off the numbers and what a hitter’s tendency is. If anything, it’s a risk for a manager to ignore those facts and NOT shift.

Does it draw attention to Maddon? Of course. And most managers shy away from that. Attention can bring criticism, which is why managers ignore matchups and call on the closer every time there is a one-, two- or three-run lead. If the closer fails, the manager can just say, “Well, he’s my ninth-inning guy,” and then their butts are covered.

But I like Maddon because I think he has the full support of the organization and could care less about the attention. And that’s what makes the Rays a fun team to watch.

Judgment time begins for Vikings stadium

It’s taken a longer-than-expected session, but the Minnesota Vikings stadium bill on Monday will go under the most intense scrutiny that it has faced so far.

The Minnesota House will debate and is expected to vote on the bill Monday, though according to the Star Tribune, a vote could come after midnight depending on how long the debate lasts.

The House vote is just another part of the process, but this is definitely a big day for the stadium bill. Time is running out, and it can ill afford any sort of a hiccup at this point.

I’m starting to believe this thing will pass. Ever since NFL leaders paid a visit to the Capitol a couple weeks back, the tone has changed from many of the political leaders. And stories like this one that ran in Sunday’s Forum amp up the sense of urgency to do it now or risk losing the team.

In what was an interesting bit of timing for those of us living in Minnesota, CNBC aired a documentary last week titled “Sonicsgate,” which examined the NBA’s Seattle SuperSonics and their relocation to Oklahoma City after more than four decades in the Pacific Northwest.

I don’t mean to say this to stir up any fear. But there are some similarities between the Sonics situation and the Vikings’ current one.

Both teams were/are in mid-major markets and both have seen other pro/college teams around them in their respective markets get stadiums built in recent years. They both were/have been a part of their markets for a long time.

But what really marked the end of the Sonics was when Seattle-based Starbucks chairman Howard Schultz sold the team to Oklahoma City businessman Clay Bennett in 2006. The writing was on the wall at that point, and Bennett moved the franchise to OKC in 2008.

That’s what Vikings fans need to be concerned about. The Wilf ownership group seems committed to keeping the team in Minnesota. But if they want out, the next owner might not feel the same way.

Bet you didn’t think you were witnessing baseball history

Nine hits in a four-game span. Can the Minnesota Twins be any worse? Apparently not.

The Elias Sports Bureau – via Star Tribune writer La Velle E. Neal’s blog – confirms that in the modern era (since 1900), no Major League Baseball team has ever had fewer hits in a four-game stretch than the Twins have had dating back to Tuesday.

To review:

  • Tuesday vs. Angels (Jerome Williams): 3 hits
  • Wednesday vs. Angels (Jered Weaver): 0 hits
  • Friday vs. Mariners (Jason Vargas): 5 hits
  • Saturday vs. Mariners (Felix Hernandez): 1 hit

Amazingly, the Twins actually won one of those games, which was Friday’s tilt at beautiful Safeco Field.

The Twins are calling up shortstop Brian Dozier and starter Scott Diamond, with Justin Morneau headed to the disabled list. Manager Ron Gardenhire plans to install Dozier immediately as his starting shortstop, hoping to give the offense a little “life” as he put it.

Dozier’s a very solid prospect in a system lacking big league-ready prospects. But don’t expect Dozier to be the next Hanley Ramirez or Nomar Garciaparra or anything.

But the offense could use some help. It’s slumping, although in its defense two of the last four games were against Cy Young-caliber starting pitchers.

And therein lies the problem for the Twins. They boast a decent offense when healthy, but they don’t have a single starting pitcher capable of doing to an opponent what Weaver and King Felix did to them.

So when the offense slumps – and it has to a historic level in the last few days – the Twins have almost no chance of winning. Again, it’s rather surprising that they pulled a victory out Friday all things considered.

Mauer, poor pitching and a dim future

If you’ve watched the Minnesota Twins play the last two nights, then you’re either an Angels fan or one tough cookie.

The Twins were no-hit last night by Jered Weaver and have had three hits total in the last two games.

Forum sports editor Kevin Schnepf sums up the Twins’ woes pretty well in this column he wrote in today’s paper.

The numbers don’t lie. Minnesota has the worst record in baseball, the worst ERA, the fewest strikeouts, etc. The offense ranks among the bottom third in the majors. And the defense … well, I’d argue the Twins lack a single player defensively that’s above average.

Johan Santana led the 2002 Twins in strikeouts. Associated Press

Go back 10 years to the 2002 Twins, who broke the team’s 11-year postseason drought with an AL Central title and eventual berth in the ALCS. Like this year’s team, the 2002 Twins had a pitch-to-contact staff too (although obviously a more superior one). Johan Santana led that team in strikeouts with 137, despite pitching only 108 1/3 innings and only serving as a part-time starter.

Among the many differences between the two, what was the biggest? I’d say defense and athleticism. The ’02 Twins could pick it, with Corey Koskie at third, Cristian Guzman at shortstop, Dougie Mientkiewicz at first. Then in the outfield, Torii Hunter and Jacque Jones provided the range.

But back to the present. In 2012, I see a team with hopeless pitching and no signs of it letting up. After all, if the Twins chose to jettison Nick Blackburn or Francisco Liriano to the bullpen, who is going to take their places? And don’t give me the line about Scott Diamond having a nice year in Rochester. Is there anyone that can be expected to make any sort of an impact on the horizon at either Triple-A or Double-A?

Even in the lower levels of the minors, the Twins have hope, but it comes in the form of position players. That’s all fine and dandy, but this is a pitching era, and somehow the Twins have missed the boat entirely in pitching development.

The state of the organization screams rebuilding mode, but this is where Joe Mauer and his eight-year, $184 million contract enter the picture. The Twins could seemingly try to rebuild for, say, 2015 with the hopes that guys like Aaron Hicks and Angel Morales and Miguel Sano are ready to make a big impact in the big leagues. Then the club could spend money on pitching rather than worrying about the offense. Or trade a guy like Hicks now for a minor league power arm.

So ask yourself these two questions:

  1. Can a team rebuild while simultaneously paying a player $23 million per year, essentially wasting the prime of his career?
  2. And if you think they can’t, is there any way in the short term for the Twins to dig their way out of this hole and compete again?

I think there’s a better chance of No. 1 working than No. 2 ever happening. 

Seau leaves behind legacy, questions

I’ve always thought that middle linebacker is the glamour position of a defense. It’s the quarterback on that side of the ball, as so many people say.

And for a lot of people my age, that glamour player at middle linebacker during our youth was Junior Seau. His play was both supremely intelligent and physically devastating to an opponent, all at the same time.

So you could imagine my surprise to see Seau had passed away Wednesday at the age of 43. Investigators believe he committed suicide.

Game planning to face the San Diego Chargers in the 1990s meant trying to stay away from Junior Seau. Associated Press photo

Seau was a 12-time Pro Bowler who played a 20-year NFL career that wrapped up in 2009. He was unquestionably the premier player at his position during the prime of his career.

Yet Wednesday’s news brings all sorts of questions. Seau is the biggest name among the tragedies that have surrounded former NFL players in recent years.

League and medical officials continue to debate and discuss the effects that concussions had on former players. And while no line can be clearly drawn between the hits that Seau took in his career and his untimely death, it’s hard to ignore the long line of players who have lost their lives – suicide or otherwise – in recent years.

It’s been almost 10 years since Hall of Fame center Mike Webster died at the age of 50 after suffering from amnesia and dementia during his post-playing career.

It’s been only one year since former Chicago Bears safety Dave Duerson committed suicide. Following his death, it was found that Duerson suffered from a neurodegenerative disease linked to concussions.

The most shocking fact of all might be this: Seau is already the eighth player from the 1994 San Diego Chargers team that reached a Super Bowl to pass away too soon, joining the likes of Chris Mims and Rodney Culver.

Why Seau supposedly chose to take his own life, we may never know. But hopefully some steps can be taken quickly to solve the concussion issue and at least help prevent future NFL tragedies.