Ladies and gentlemen … they got the ‘stache.

The Minnesota Twins agreed to a two-year, $16.5 million contract with startng pitcher Carl Pavano on Wednesday. His return gives the Twins a stable, veteran starting pitcher on a rotation that has quite a bit of instability and youth.

I like this move from the Twins perspective. Makes a lot more financial sense than giving Matt Capps a deal that pays him more than $7 million to pitch 60 or 70 innings when they could have afforded to keep both Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain with that money, but we’ll leave it there.

Let’s take a look at the roster:

• Starting pitching: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing are probably in. Kevin Slowey and Nick Blackburn battle for final spot, with loser probably ending up as Twins long reliever. Kyle Gibson will be waiting in the minors if anyone fails.
• Bullpen: Joe Nathan will close if he’s healthy, with Matt Capps and Jose Mijares serving as primary set-up men. Loser of Blackburn/Slowey rotation battle will end up in bullpen. Eric Hacker was given a surprising big league contract and could make the team. Pat Neshek is still in the fold. Scott Diamond – a lefty – is a Rule 5 pick. Alex Burnett, Jeff Manship, Anthony Slama … hard to predict who will all end up here. Did I forget anyone? Eddie Guardado, anyone? I have to believe the Twins will sign a cheap veteran or two to add to this group. Makes my stomach turn just typing the relievers’ names.
• Everyday lineup: My prediction is CF Denard Span, 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka, C Joe Mauer, 1B Justin Morneau (assuming he’s ready to go, which is a bit of an assumption), LF Delmon Young, DH Jim Thome, RF Michael Cuddyer, 3B Danny Valencia and SS Alexi Casilla. I really think the Twins are better off bumping Nishioka to the 8 spot and sliding everyone – including Mauer – up a spot. But plenty of studies have shown batting order doesn’t matter much, so it’s not a huge deal.
• Bench: Jason Kubel ends up here, although he’ll get plenty of playing time. Drew Butera is also a lock to back up Mauer. Jason Repko would also appear to be a safe bet as a defensive replacement in the outfield for the slow-footed Young and Cuddyer. Trevor Plouffe and Matt Tolbert should get good looks as backup infielders, though there’s a good chance there will be only four bench players if the Twins opt to carry 12 relievers. I have to assume they will. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire generally prefers that, and considering the uncertainty in the bullpen, they could probably use the extra arm.

I’m the first to admit that I’m stunned how well Carl Pavano has pitched for the Minnesota Twins this season.

The Twins did the right thing in offering him arbitration this past offseason, and Pavano – considering the free-agent market – did the right thing in taking it.

Sporting an epic mustache, Pavano this year has been that steady veteran presence in an otherwise turbulent Twins rotation. He’s gone 9-6 in 15 starts, posting a 3.33 ERA and a .239 opponents’ batting average.

Twins GM Bill Smith probably doesn’t get enough credit for how well last summer’s trade with Cleveland has worked out. The Twins got Pavano from the Indians in exchange for minor league pitcher Yohan Pino. Forget about the Johan trade. It’s the Yohan trade we’re talking about.

Pino, by the way, has a 5.49 ERA in 15 starts for Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate in Columbus.

But it doesn’t stop there with Pavano, who helped pitch the team to the AL Central title last year.

Pavano is now on pace to be a Type A free agent after the season, according to projections made available by MLBtraderumors.com.

That means his departure after the season would give the Twins a compensatory first-round pick plus the first-round pick of whatever team signs him.

Not a bad haul for Yohan Pino. It might be a better haul for Yohan than it was for Johan.

I know for many of you, it’s not exactly morning, or at least not for much longer. But with this journalist’s schedule, anything before 1 p.m. qualifies as morning.

Anyway, here’s a couple of interesting links expanding on Carl Pavano‘s decision to accept arbitration with the Minnesota Twins:

• Twins blogger Aaron Gleeman writes that Pavano is a worthy gamble for the Twins, and that while his 5.10 ERA for the season doesn’t look appealing, he pitched much better than that. Gleeman says Pavano is not cut from the same cloth as a Ramon Ortiz, Livan Hernandez or Sidney Ponson, and one year of Pavano is much better than multiple seasons of Jarrod Washburn. I couldn’t agree more.
• Star Tribune writer Joe Christensen on his blog takes a closer look at the team’s payroll, which after arbitration raises looks like it’s already at $90 million for next season. The Twins are pretty hush-hush on what their payroll will be going into the new ballpark, but some have estimated as much as $100 million. Last year, it was $65 million, so this is a substantial bump. And they haven’t even re-signed Joe Mauer yet. So the payroll leaves me wondering how the Twins are going to be able to improve other areas. Look at Christensen’s bench projections. Clearly, the Twins need a veteran or two there. Another infielder – even if it’s Joe Crede – would help too. These aren’t expensive to fill, but a nickel here and a nickel there, and a Mauer extension here and you’re looking at a payroll of $105 million. Would the Twins really go that high? I’ve mentioned before they might have to consider trading Joe Nathan, which would not be a popular move with Mauer.

UPDATE: Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment to make room for Pavano. So in all likelihood Bonser won’t be back next year. I assume he can accept an assignment to the minors, but I doubt he would considering the depth of starting pitching the Twins have.

ALSO: Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs praises the Twins’ decision to keep Pavano. He said retaining Pavano and acquiring shortstop J.J. Hardy makes for a good offseason for the Twins.

Barring a last-minute change of heart, starting pitcher Carl Pavano has decided to accept the arbitration offer from the Minnesota Twins.

Pavano, who went 5-4 with a 4.64 ERA in 12 starts with Minnesota last season after coming over in a trade from Cleveland, reportedly could not find a two-year contract offer from any team, so he elected to take the one-year arbitration offer instead.

Hard to say what Pavano would get an arbitration, though it’s likely the Twins will negotiate a one-year deal with him before he gets there. One estimate I heard on TV today was in the range of $8-10 million for the 2010 season. That’s a lot of dough, but the Twins usually would prefer to pay a lot for one year rather than stretch out less than that for multiple seasons.

Twins GM Bill Smith said earlier this offseason he’d like to have one or two veteran starting pitchers next season. Pavano would provide the Twins with at least one for next season.

Pavano did a nice job for the Twins down the stretch and pitched brilliantly in a playoff loss to the New York Yankees. His presence means the Twins have four of their five rotation spots pretty much nailed down. He’ll join Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey as virtual locks for the 2010 rotation, with Glen Perkins, Brian Duensing, Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano among those fighting it out for the last spot.

But that’s assuming the Twins don’t make another pitching acquisition. They have been linked to such pitchers as Jarrod Washburn and Rich Harden, but at this point I’d assume Washburn is an unlikely addition because I’m sure he’s seeking a multi-year contract. The Twins – with Pavano – won’t be so deeply in need of a starter that they’d make an offer like that.

Harden, on the other hand, is a much better fit, and with his injury-proned history should garner a one-year deal this offseason.

I’ve said on this blog before that the Twins need an ace. They aren’t going to trade for Roy Halladay or sign John Lackey to a big contract because that’s now how they operate. But adding a free-agent starter like Harden or Erik Bedard or Ben Sheets on a one-year deal would give the Twins someone with ace stuff, assuming that pitcher can stay healthy for the whole season.

• Harden struck out 171 batters in 141 innings last season for the Chicago Cubs, going 9-9 with a 4.09 ERA in 26 starts. The ERA is not earth-shattering, but he had a 2.55 ERA after the All-Star break and carries a career ERA of 3.39. The Twins reportedly made a waiver claim on him in August, only to have the Cubs pull him back off waivers.
• Bedard got negative attention in Seattle, partly because he’s injured a lot, and partly because the Mariners gave up a king’s ransom to get him (Adam Jones and George Sherrill among other prospects). Bedard was phenomenal when healthy last season, going 5-3 with a 2.82 ERA in 15 starts before suffering a torn labrum.
• Sheets has not pitched since 2008, when he went 13-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 31 starts for the Milwaukee Brewers. He was rumored to be considering retirement after his latest season-ending injury, and there’s still a lot of question as to how much he has left to offer.

Sheets and Harden expect to be healthy for Opening Day. Bedard could be out until May or even later, depending on where you get your information.

Pavano definitely does not feel the Twins’ need for an ace, as nicely as he pitched down the stretch last year. But at the very least, his addition should ensure that the Twins don’t make a big mistake in giving a guy like Washburn a multi-year contract when Washburn wouldn’t serve as one either.