Tag Archives: joe nathan

Nathan feels good as Twins workouts begin soon

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First off, for you Minnesota Twins fans out there, Tom Mix and Troy Becker of The Forum combined to put together a cool-looking spring training preview in today’s sports section. Here’s the link to it online, but you miss out on what Becker did for an illustration if you don’t see the print product.

The Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that reliever Joe Nathan – whose trying to come back from Tommy John surgery – is hitting as much as 91 mph on the radar gun.

Good sign for his recovery and the fact that the Twins really need him in what is a depleted bullpen compared to a year ago. Last year, there was enough depth to cover for him not being able to pitch. This year, there simply isn’t. This will be a big year for Nathan, Matt Capps and Jose Mijares.

The big test for Nathan obviously is facing hitters in spring training and regular-season games. His arm looks to be on the right path to becoming fully healed. But does he have the confidence in it to pitch the way he used to before Tommy John surgery? That’s the big question.

I’m really looking forward to baseball season. Helps take my mind off the fact that even with recent melting, there’s still a ton of snow outside my house. Kind of tired of looking at it.

Big year for the Twins too. Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are free agents after this season. Nathan could – and likely will – become a free agent after this season if the team doesn’t pick up his 2012 option. Could be the last time together for a few Twins mainstays. That will free up some big bucks to use next offseason, especially since Nathan and Cuddyer production-wise didn’t live up to their hefty paychecks last season, and Kubel had a down year too, albeit coming a lot cheaper than Nathan/Cuddyer.

Finally, here’s an analysis piece by FanGraphs’ Jack Moore regarding the New York Yankees dominance of the Twins. Enjoy, though if you’re a Twins fan, you probably won’t.

Early returns favor Blyleven

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One of my favorite December and January blog activities last year was checking out Baseball Think Factory’s website and its “Hall of Fame Ballot Gathering Machine.”

Bert Blyleven

Is this the year that Bert Blyleven gets circled by the Hall of Fame? Associated Press photo

The website takes the ballots posted online by writers that vote for the Baseball Hall of Fame and combines them to figure out percentages and see who is on pace to get elected this year and who will get snubbed.

I learned last year that you can’t take too much from it. Early returns had Roberto Alomar getting in and he surprisingly didn’t. But in the case of former Minnesota Twins pitcher Bert Blyleven, the returns weren’t far off from the final tally.

This time around, Blyleven has enough votes so far among those voters who has made their picks public, sneaking past the 75 percent threshold needed for induction. According to these returns, Blyleven and Alomar would make it in, with Barry Larkin coming up just short. But I do emphasize that it is extremely early with just 71 ballots in so far.

Blyleven got 74 percent of the vote last year. Nobody has ever gotten that close without eventually getting elected.

It’s interesting how with some of these players, I feel like I become bigger fans of them after they retire than when they played. Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez are examples of that. I’m convinced Raines will one day get in, that his numbers show he was likely one of the five greatest leadoff hitters in baseball history if not one of the three best. And Martinez does well with modern-day numbers like OPS, though his inability to stay healthy and lack of time spent doing anything other than DH-ing hurts him. He probably never will get in.

But I think Raines will. He got only 30 percent of the vote last year. But I’ve noticed a lot of the voters on MLB Network have given him the nod this year, and the early returns have him at 52 percent. So things are looking up for him.

One other link worth checking out is the ZiPS projects for the 2011 Minnesota Twins. Some interesting projections:

  • Japanese import second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka is picked to hit .281 and steal 38 bases. Twins would probably take that. He’s also picked to get caught stealing 17 times though.
  • Closer Joe Nathan, who missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, is projected to post an ERA of 3.00 for 2011.

Twins closer Rauch being put to the test early

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It may not always be pretty. But at the end of the day, Jon Rauch has had four saves chances, and he’s converted all four of them.

The Minnesota Twins’ five-game winning streak has only included one blowout, giving Rauch ample opportunities to prove that he’s the one to replace injured closer Joe Nathan.

Rauch closed the door with ease in his first save. The last three have been a little more hair-raising, but they’ve ended with saves nonetheless. Twins fans ought to be used to it by now, recalling Eddie Guardado‘s tenure as the closer.

More importantly, the bullpen as a whole has done a very nice job. Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Brian Duensing have been nearly untouchable so far this year. Pat Neshek has done the job. And even Alex Burnett looked good in his one outing, albeit during garbage time of that blowout win over the Los Angeles Angels. Jose Mijares has been the one reliever that’s struggled, but his track record is such that he’ll be given every chance to success as the situational lefty in the ‘pen.

So while Rauch may make things interesting, Twins fans have got to be very satisfied with the way the bullpen has performed during the team’s first week, which has produced the current five-game winning streak.

Don’t expect closer-by-committee approach to stick

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Minnesota Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said Sunday he’s planning to go with a closer-by-committee approach this season to replace the injured Joe Nathan. That means Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares and Jesse Crain could all be called upon to get saves.

This type of approach doesn’t bother me. Despite my push for a Heath Bell trade, I do feel the closer’s position is overrated. Often times, managers are best suited to just play matchups rather than hand the job to someone who might not be able to get right-handed and left-handed hitters out on a regular basis.

But I don’t expect Gardenhire to go this route for long. And I do think it’s still possible that the Twins might make a move in the next week or so prior to the regular-season opener against the Los Angeles Angels next Monday. The Toronto Blue Jays are reportedly going with Jason Frasor as their closer, meaning Scott Downs is potential trade bait.

In all likelihood, one of the above relievers – probably not Crain, but who knows? - will step up in April and have a firm grip on any save opportunities before you know it.

But if the Twins aren’t going to make a trade for a closer, I like the closer-by-committee approach to open the season. None of the above names jumps out at me as a full-time closer at this time.

Are Slama, Jones playing their ways onto Twins?

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A familiar face and a new face might be playing their ways onto the Minnesota Twins’ Opening Day roster.

In Wednesday’s 4-1 spring training victory against the Florida Marlins, Twins outfielder Jacque Jones had a pair of hits – including a homer – to push his spring average to .360.

Meanwhile, reliever Anthony Slama picked up the save and continues to be unhittable. Literally. In five appearances, he’s not allowed a hit, striking out nine in five innings of work. I don’t care what kind of competition you’re facing. That’s an impressive five outings.

Slama has a decent chance of making the Twins’ Opening Day roster. At 26 years old, Slama has done everything he can in the minor leagues. In 140 career outings, he has an ERA of 1.87 with 271 strikeouts in 183 2/3 innings, plus 54 saves the last two years.

With the struggles of Clay Condrey, Brian Duensing and Glen Perkins this spring, Slama should have a real shot of the making the team when camp breaks. And I hope he does. Fans have been dying to see what he can do against big league hitters.

The path to an Opening Day roster is a little tougher for Jones. Most members of the media believe the final position player spot is a battle between Matt Tolbert and Alexi Casilla, and Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has said that he’s getting comfortable with Michael Cuddyer as a back-up center fielder when Denard Span needs a day off.

I think the Twins would be better served having someone a little more versatile as a back-up to Span, maybe waiting out spring cuts to see if someone gets let go. But I can understand why Jones is facing an uphill climb, considering he hasn’t played in the big leagues in two years, and the last time he did play didn’t go that well.

But I’m rooting for Jones. I appreciate what the guys – Doug Mientkiewicz, A.J. Pierzynski, Torii Hunter, Brad Radke, etc. – in the early part of the last decade did to drag the franchise out of the dumps. Hopefully, Jones finds his way onto the big league team sometime this year.

Nathan’s season is officially over for the Twins

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A search for a Minnesota Twins closer can officially begin.

Twins closer Joe Nathan played catch with pitching coach Rick Anderson on Sunday morning, and it did not go well enough for Nathan to try to pitch this season through pain after tearing a ligament in his elbow earlier this month.

Nathan will undergo Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of the season.

My guess is that the Twins will have a hard time making a deal before the season opens, in the event that they choose to trade for a closer. And I have a "Heath Bell or bust" mentality when it comes to making a deal, but it doesn’t sound like he’s going anywhere. If it’s not a bona fide reliable closer, I wouldn’t make a trade that would gut the farm system.

I like Toronto’s Jason Frasor, but I don’t know what the asking price would be. Chances are, it would be too high for my taste. Frasor had great numbers last year, but he’s still someone who’s registered just 15 saves total in the last five seasons.

So I bet the Twins end up staying in-house at least until the midseason trade deadline, as they so often do when matters like this come up.

Jon Rauch is probably the favorite at this point, though I wouldn’t rule out Matt Guerrier or Jose Mijares. There’s no doubt if Pat Neshek opens the season strong that he could wrest the job from one of these guys. Same goes for Francisco Liriano, assuming he didn’t open the season on the rotation. But the Twins would be crazy to just hand the job to Neshek or Liriano for Opening Day.

Should Twins be giving Smoltz a chance?

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As more and more time passes, I’m starting to think the Minnesota Twins should give John Smoltz a chance to be the team’s closer.

Am I crazy? Has the stress from the flood caused me to go Looney Tunes?

Smoltz will be 43 years old in mid-May and is coming off a difficult – well, let’s call it what it was, a very BAD – season with Boston and St. Louis last year. He struggled mightily with the Red Sox, but actually posted good numbers with the Cards in his seven starts there.

Smoltz has closing experience with 154 saves during his lengthy career with the Atlanta Braves. And can you believe I’m even suggesting the Twins sign a guy who played in the 1991 World Series? Makes me feel young.

But he’s made just one relief appearance since 2004. So how he would react to being a reliever again, well I don’t really know.

But he still strikes out roughly a batter and inning and keeps his walk numbers down. He was extremely hittable with the Sox (59 hits allowed in 40 innings), but not as much with St. Louis (36 hits in 38 innings).

TBS recently announced that Smoltz would be joining the station’s broadcast team for this season. But one has to assume if a major league offer is out there, he’ll be able to take it.

I like the idea of trading for San Diego Padres closer Heath Bell, but I don’t know what it would take for the Twins to get him.

So why not give Smoltz a look? I’m sure he’d love one last chance to pitch in the playoffs, and the Twins can give him that. They’ll basically hand him the closer’s job if he shows in spring training he still has something left.

I’m sure the Twins are waiting to hear what Joe Nathan will do. Nathan is going to test his elbow this weekend and make a decision as to whether or not he wants to undergo Tommy John surgery or try to pitch through the pain.

If Nathan says Monday he’s done for the season, the Twins should give Smoltz a call. What’s the harm in it?

Is there hope to save Nathan’s season?

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All indications are that Joe Nathan will not pitch for the Minnesota Twins in 2010. The perennial All-Star closer is likely headed for Tommy John surgery after suffering a significant tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching arm.

But MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo writes that, as unlikely as it sounds, it is possible that Nathan could pitch this season with some effectiveness.

Mayo cites last season, when veteran Boston Red Sox reliever Takaski Saito opted not to have Tommy John surgery and pitch through the pain. He was reasonably effective, appearing in 56 games with a 2.43 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .244 opponents’ batting average.

Saito, who is now with the Atlanta Braves, insists he’s all better now.

I, of course, remain skeptical of this. There are some similarities between what Nathan will go through and what Saito did go through. But my guess is there’s far more cases where this didn’t work out at all.

Analyzing the potential Nathan replacements

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As I mentioned in a previous post, the Minnesota Twins were expected to have pretty good depth in their bullpen this season. There’s no shortage of bodies to replace Joe Nathan, assuming the Twins closer does miss the season due to a torn ligament in his pitching elbow.

Matching his effectiveness will be the biggest obstacle.

Let’s look at a few in-house candidates to replace Nathan:

  • Matt Guerrier: Guerrier was about as dominant as any set-up man in baseball last year. In 79 appearances, he posted a 2.36 ERA, a .97 WHIP and an opponents’ batting average of .207. It was a very nice bounce-back year from a poor showing in 2008, which followed an extremely effective 2007. Can Guerrier post back-to-back great seasons? Only time will tell.
  • Jon Rauch: Rauch is the only Twins reliever with extensive experience as a closer. He saved 18 games between stops with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Washington Nationals back in 2008. Rauch pitched very well for the Twins down the stretch last year after a midseason trade from Arizona. In 17 games with Minnesota, he posted a 5-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
  • Pat Neshek: Often considered the closer of the future, Neshek hasn’t pitched for the Twins in nearly two years due to arm trouble. He’s back in camp and green-lighted for the 2010 season, but should he be thrust into the closer’s job from the get-go?
  • Francisco Liriano: I’ve heard his name mentioned a lot, but not from anybody within the organization. Call me crazy, but I’m not ready to shut the door on Liriano as a starter. And I certainly wouldn’t advocate putting him in the closer’s job even if he did move to the bullpen. He’d have to work his way into that role, in my opinion. There is reason to think that Liriano could be an effective reliever, as his numbers from pitches 1 through 30 thrown are much better than beyond 30 pitches. But I still think the Twins should give him 5 to 7 starts this season to see if he can return to form, or at the very least return to 2008 post-minor league stop form (11 starts, 2.74 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 60 Ks in 65-plus innings).

So, what are my thoughts?

Well, I immediately wouldn’t consider Liriano or Neshek, and the Twins aren’t going that route anyway. They are just two names that I’ve heard people bring up over the last 24 hours. But neither guy should be put in a spot like that right away.

So that leaves Rauch and Guerrier. I think the Twins would be best served leaving Guerrier in the eighth-inning role and letting Rauch close if it came to it. Don’t get me wrong. I think Guerrier is the better pitcher, assuming he doesn’t revert to 2008 form.

But I like the flexibility in having that best reliever pitch when he’s most needed, rather than pegging him as a ninth-inning guy. If Rauch bombed, then I’d consider a change. But the ninth inning doesn’t matter if you can’t maintain the lead in the seventh or eighth innings. And with two baserunners on and a one-run lead to protect in the seventh, I’d rather call on Guerrier than Rauch.

I know that’s not traditional baseball wisdom. But that’s just how I feel. Like I said, if Rauch doesn’t get the job done, than changes must be made. But I’d give him the first chance.

Nathan’s 2010 season could be over before it starts

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The momentum built from an offseason full of optimism for Minnesota Twins fans came to a screeching halt Tuesday.

It appears Twins closer Joe Nathan could very likely end up having season-ending Tommy John surgery to repair a "significant tear" in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow.

This would be a big blow to the Twins chances if he opts to go that route. Nathan said he’s going to do what he can to pitch this year, even if it’s in pain. He’s going to rest for the next couple of weeks to see how things go.

I suggested after last season the Twins consider trading Nathan if they needed to free up money to sign Mauer (we’ve seen since then that their payroll has skyrocketed and a trade would not have been necessary). But I think after an injury popped up earlier in the offseason and now this, we’re beginning to see why that would have been difficult.

Despite all of that, Nathan’s loss – or any drop in his performance should he choose to pitch through the pain – would significantly hamper what looked like a very strong Twins bullpen coming into the season. There were solid set-up men in Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares and depth in front of them with Pat Neshek, Clay Condrey and Jesse Crain among those vying for spots in the ‘pen.