Tag Archives: NFL picks

Selanne returns to Winnipeg, and NFL picks

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There’s a big NHL game tonight just three hours from Fargo. And for once, I’m not talking about the first-place Minnesota Wild.

Teemu Selanne returns to Winnipeg tonight to take on the Jets in the same city that he made his prolific splash in the NHL nearly two decades ago.

As a rookie with the Jets’ previous incarnation, Selanne enjoyed one of the great rookie seasons in North American professional sports history. He scored 76 goals in the 1992-93 season, shattering the previous NHL rookie record of 53 set by Mike Bossy. Selanne would go on to play 4 1/2 seasons with Winnipeg before being dealt to the Anaheim Ducks.

The Jets franchise packed its bags and headed to Phoenix after completing the season that saw Selanne get traded. But Winnipeg got a new Jets franchise this season, giving the 41-year-old Selanne an opportunity to play in front of his former home fans one more time.

Week 15 NFL picks

Went 2-3 last week.

  • Saints by 7 at Vikings: Saints
  • Bears by 3 1/2 vs. Seahawks: Seahawks
  • Titans by 7 at Colts: Titans
  • Patriots by 4 1/2 at Broncos: Patriots
  • Ravens by 1 at Chargers: Chargers

Fantasy football review, and NFL Week 14 picks

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While Minnesota Vikings fans might be looking ahead to 2012, those that play fantasy football may not be ready to close the door on the NFL season just yet.

Week 14 means in most leagues that the fantasy football playoffs are about to get under way. How was this year for me? Solid, but not spectacular. My team in a 10-team league has been dominant, thanks to waiver-wire adds like Cam Newton, Victor Cruz and DeMarco Murray, and a midseason Vick-for-Chris Johnson swap. Grabbed the No. 1 seed for playoffs in that league.

The team in my 16-team league will not be defending its title. That squad sputtered to 6-7, never recovering from the loss of Jahvid Best at running back (a top-1o back prior to his latest concussion). Injuries are a killer in leagues that deep since there isn’t much on the waiver wire. Was actually fifth in scoring among the 16 teams, so there was some bad luck there as well. That team has also gotten great production from waiver-wire add Tim Tebow, who will be a keeper option to consider going forward.

Anyway, before the season, I posted some players I liked for fantasy football. Let’s review:

What did I get right

I actually performed better with my deep sleeper picks than my list of undervalued players. I nailed the Matthew Stafford selection much like many people did, although even his performance has tailed off in the last few weeks.

James Starks likely gave you solid production, though John Kuhn has prevented Starks from realizing his full potential by poaching many TDs. Ryan Grant certainly has not been a factor.

Looking at the deep sleeper list, a few names jump out. Murray has been an outstanding add in any-sized league. Eric Decker has had a very good season. Ben Tate has been a sneaky play despite being a back-up on his own team (I managed to get him thrown into the trade I mentioned earlier in this post). Even Denarius Moore has provided a couple of really good games.

What went wrong

Well, almost everyone in my undervalued list. Knowshon Moreno, Felix Jones, Austin Collie and Lee Evans have proven to be train wrecks of fantasy picks, and I don’t blame you for never taking my advice again if you selected those four.

I always figured Aaron Hernandez – not Rob Gronkowski – was the tight end to own for the Patriots, thinking that Gronkowski’s TD total from last season was a bit of a fluke. Boy was I wrong!

Week 14 NFL picks

Another strong showing two weeks ago, going 4-1. I didn’t make picks last week while I was on vacation. Regardless, I need to quit procrastinating and add up my totals. I have to be doing pretty well for the season.

  • Saints by 4 at Titans: Saints
  • Falcons by 3 at Panthers: Panthers
  • Patriots by 8 1/2 at Redskins: Patriots
  • Bengals by 1 vs. Texans: Texans
  • Cowboys by 3 1/2 vs. Giants: Cowboys

Gophers basketball team still has plenty to prove

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A Thanksgiving work shift and a complete lack of desire to go Black Friday shopping meant only one thing: I watched a whole lot of sports these past couple of days.

For the first time this season, I got a glimpse at the University of Minnesota men’s basketball team. I watched the first half – and apparently, the wrong half – of Thursday’s game and caught almost all of Friday’s game at the Old Spice Classic.

The Gophers pulled out victories in both games, despite having halftime deficits in each of them. Neither opponent – DePaul and Indiana State – was overly impressive, as the Gophers find themselves undefeated at 6-0 heading into Sunday’s tournament title game against Dayton.

Despite the unbeaten mark, I didn’t like what I saw. The Gophers seem to lack the type of defensive intensity that head coach Tubby Smith‘s teams are usually known for. And I sure don’t think they have enough offensive firepower to overcome it.

Junior-college transfer Julian Welch gave the Gophers a nice boost on Friday with 17 points. Rodney Williams has had his moments on the offensive end, but the reputation as a “highlight dunker” has not been replaced by “complete player” yet.

And Pat Reusse‘s turkey column hit the nail on the head: How disappointing is Ralph Sampson III? There wouldn’t be expectations of him if he didn’t show flashes of being a really productive post presence. He’s earned those expectations, yet despite being a senior, he still disappears for stretches at a time.

Trevor Mbakwe is an absolute beast of a rebounder, maybe one of the best the Gophers have ever had. He’s a handful down low, and Minnesota should do more to try and get him involved offensively.

Undefeated or not, I need to see more to believe the Gophers can even be an above .500 team in Big Ten play.

Week 12 NFL picks

A 2-3 week last week snapped a pretty good run I was on of going 3-2. Here’s my picks for this week:

  • New York Jets by 8 1/2 vs. Buffalo: Bills
  • Houston by 3 1/2 at Jacksonville: Texans
  • Carolina by 4 at Indianapolis: Panthers
  • Tennessee by 3 1/2 vs. Tampa Bay: Titans
  • New Orleans by 6 1/2 vs. New York Giants: Giants

Can Tebow’s offense work in the NFL? And Week 11 picks

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Tebow

Tim Tebow is nearly Tebowing in this photo. Fist needs to be closer to chin. Assocated Press photo

Despite Tim Tebow‘s goody-two-shoes image, he’s the most polarizing figure in pro sports today. No matter where you look, everyone seems to have an opinion.

I’ll tackle a few of the phrases I hear most about Tebow:

“Say what you want, but Tebow wins.”

Well, that is true … to a degree. The Denver Broncos are 4-1 since Tebow took over the reins as the starting quarterback. But let’s remember how some of these games were won. In order to rally from two scores down to beat the Miami Dolphins, the Broncos recovered an onside kick. Without that play, Tebow never gets a chance. On Thursday, without the defensive touchdown, the Broncos don’t pull out a win. Tebow is at the helm, but he alone isn’t the reason for the 4-1 record.

“I don’t care about his record. The option can’t work in the NFL.”

I’m not sure if I agree with that. I don’t disagree with it either. Time will tell. It’s not something that has been tried for some time. And while we can all agree that Tebow’s option offense wouldn’t be enough to beat prolific offenses in New England and Green Bay, against the vast majority of the medicore NFL, it seems to be working so far. And really, how many QBs in the NFL stand a chance of upsetting the Packers, Patriots, etc.?

“I don’t care what happens. I just know Tebow is a bad quarterback.”

He certainly looks awful when he becomes a classic drop-back passer. I’m pretty skeptical that he can get the job done over the long haul. But he’s a good – if not tiresome – topic of conversation.

 Week 11 NFL picks

Yet another 3-2 week last week. Not bad.

Packers by 14 1/2 vs. Bucs: Bucs
Raiders by 1 1/2 at Vikings: Raiders
Cowboys by 7 1/2 at Redskins: Cowboys
Dolphins by 2 vs. Bills: Bills
Giants by 3 1/2 vs. Eagles: Giants

Carroll can give Twins stability if age doesn’t catch up to him, and NFL picks

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Though the Minnesota Twins aren’t acknowledging it yet, multiple media outlets are reporting that the Twins have agreed to terms with free-agent infielder Jamey Carroll.

This marks the first major league move made by Terry Ryan since he assumed the role of general manager following the firing of Bill Smith earlier this month.

Carroll gets a two-year deal worth $7 million. It’s believed he’ll be the team’s everyday shortstop.

This feels like a glass-half-full kind of a day, so let’s start with the good things that Carroll brings:

  • He has a career on-base percentage of .348.
  • He hit .290 last season.
  • He has a career fielding percentage of .984.

The bad?

  • He will be 38 on Opening Day.
  • He had 17 RBIs last season in about 500 plate appearances.
  • He has never played more than 70 games in a season at shortstop.
  • Did I mention he’ll be 38 on Opening Day?

Those 17 RBIs … that’s an insanely low total, no matter where a person is hitting in the lineup. Kind of hard to understand that one, other than the fact that Carroll’s LA Dodgers were really bad last year.

The Twins needed middle infield help, and Carroll gives them that. His numbers have been remarkably steady for someone at his age, although his career path has been anything but normal. He made his big league debut for the Montreal Expos in 2002 at age 28. And one could argue the last two seasons have been two of the three best years of his career.

But should the Twins be a little worried about handing an everyday shortstop job – and for $3.5 mil/season, that’s probably what they’re doing – to someone who is 38 years old and has never had that job handed to him before? I would think so.

NFL Week 10 picks

I had another 3-2 week last week. One of these days I need to figure out what my season record is. But no time for that. Here are the picks for Week 10:

  • New England pick’em at NY Jets: Patriots
  • Houston by 3 at Tampa: Texans
  • Jacksonville by 3 at Indy: Colts (Has to happen sometime, right?)
  • Cleveland by 3 vs. St. Louis: Browns
  • Kansas City by 4 vs. Denver: Broncos

Plenty of intrigue surrounding Week 7 of the NFL season

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I’m pretty pumped to watch some NFL action on Sunday. Here’s what I’m looking forward to:

  • Ponder’s debut: Rookie quarterback Christian Ponder will make his first NFL start against the Green Bay Packers. Tough task for Ponder, but the long term is now more important than the short term for the Vikings. I thought Ponder looked pretty good in the preseason.
  • Tebow’s return: Back by Denver Broncos fans’ popular demand, Tim Tebow is back as the Broncos starting quarterback. Tebow gets to take on the hapless Miami Dolphins. But I think it’s less about the opponent for Tebow. He just needs to throw the ball accurately.
  • Will we see Carson Palmer?: Palmer won’t start Sunday after coming over to the Oakland Raiders in a trade earlier this week. But judging from the Twittersphere, backup QB Kyle Boller – who will start – doesn’t seem like a very popular guy. If the Raiders are struggling, will they bring in Palmer? My guess is “no,” but you never know.
  • Bears vs. Bucs in London: Not a big fan of having NFL games in England. Do the British even know about the game? They’re probably all focused on Manchester City vs. Manchester United.

Week 7 NFL picks

Had a 3-2 week last week.

Browns by 3 vs. Seahawks: Browns

Raiders by 3 1/2 vs. Chiefs: Chiefs

Cowboys by 10 1/2 vs. Rams: Cowboys

Steelers by 4 vs. Cardinals: Steelers

Saints by 14 vs. Colts: Colts

Allen, Robison need to shine against Bears

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It’s Bears-Vikings week. Growing up, the two times a year that these two teams played were always exciting. Unfortunately, my brother or myself was usually pretty upset by the end of it, depending on the winner of the game.

We both had stretches of prolonged success (the 1990s weren’t real kind to my beloved Bears).

After watching last week’s Bears-Lions game, I’m left with one thought: What are Jared Allen and Brian Robison going to do to this team? My guess? Plenty.

The Bears offensive tackles logged downright embarrassing performances last week against Detroit. I believe they were whistled for seven or eight false starts in addition to the usual lack of quarterback protection that I’ve become accustomed to seeing over the last year-plus.

Jay Cutler played well Monday, and I’m always left wondering after a game like that how good Cutler could be with a better offensive line. But before too long, bad Cutler shows up again, and I soon forget about that first thought.

But this is a big game for both teams. The Vikings are coming off of their first victory of the season, but in either team’s case, they’re quickly slipping out of the NFC North race.

If the Vikings are going to win Sunday, I think Allen and Robison need to have huge games. A combined four QB sacks from them perhaps?

Week 6 NFL picks

Packers by 14 1/2 vs. Rams. Packers (I must be outta my mind!)

Saints by 5 vs. Bucs. Bucs

Jets by 8 vs. Dolphins. Jets

Patriots by 7 vs. Cowboys. Patriots

Falcons by 6 vs. Panthers. Panthers

Twins still talking low-revenue talk, and NFL picks

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Long gone are the days of 90-loss Minnesota Twins teams drawing crowds of 10,000 a night. This is the Target Field era, where a 99-loss team had 3 million fans cheering it on this past season.

But despite that, the Twins still seem to be using the “woe is us” talk when it comes to free agents.

Take this quote from Twins manager Ron Gardenhire in an MLB.com story:

“I think we’re all smart enough to figure out that free agents out there, as far as pitchers go, if they’re really good they’re probably going to require a little bit more money than we’re willing to pay them,” Gardenhire said at the end of the season. “All the big shooters. And there’s going to be a market for the rest of them.”

It appears the comment was in reference to soon-to-be free agent pitcher C.J. Wilson of the Texas Rangers.

The Twins reportedly have about $30 million to use on free agent this offseason. That would still lead to a drop in payroll, but not a major one. (BTW I saw the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen opine in a blog that while the Twins likely won’t pick up Joe Nathan‘s $12 million option for 2012, he could see them offering a two-year, $14 million deal to him. Wow. I’m clearly in the wrong line of work if he could still garner $7 mil/season.).

With the Twins now among the top payroll teams in baseball, it’s pretty head-scratching to see the manager talk like this. With $30 million, the Twins have two options: 1) Spend like they used to, which means signing a bunch of free agents at $4 mil/season and hope one pans out (which never happens). 2) Add a couple of really good pieces at $12-15 mil/season. I’d rather see them try the latter. That’s not specifically in reference to Wilson, as I for one have no idea what the asking price is.

I’m sure deep down – though they would never admit it – members of the organization are probably not thrilled about giving one player a ton of money after what happened with Mauer (i.e. once bitten, twice shy). Plus, there are so many holes to fill. But $4 mil/year players would just be plugging holes with chewing gum.

The Twins should locate a couple of areas in particular that need improvement and fill them, then do the best you can internally or with cheap free agents on the remainder. You got to get lucky from time to time (see Shane Mack and Brian Harper, 1991 Twins).

Week 5 NFL picks

I had a 2-3 week last week to put me at 10-10 for the season. Big week this week.

Steelers by 6 1/2 vs. Titans. Titans

Vikings by 3 vs. Cardinals. Cardinals

Texans by 5 1/2 vs. Raiders. Texans

Chargers by 6 vs. Broncos. Chargers

49ers by 2 1/2 vs. Bucs. Bucs

Saturday mailbag: Who is to blame for Vikings’ struggles?

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Happy Saturday to readers of The Forum. October has entered like a lamb today. My guess is it will leave like a lion, but I hope not.

There are a lot of things on my mind today, and it did get me thinking: I’d like to do a weekly Q&A, maybe every week on Saturdays. I’ll open it up on my own this week, but in future weeks, feel free to fire me a question at hgoethe@forumcomm.com and we’ll see how it goes. If I get some response, I’ll keep it going.

Who is to blame for the Vikings’ second-half stumbles?

I think it has to start with the head coach Leslie Frazier. Seems obvious, but I feel like he is getting a bit of a free pass right now. It’s up to coaches to make second-half adjustments at halftime. And the Vikings have clearly failed in that regard.

But if I had to blame one unit, I’d blame the offense. The Vikings have failed to generate a touchdown in the second half this season. I think the offense’s inability to move the football and keep drives alive has forced the defense to be on the field way more than it can handle. I don’t think this Vikings’ defense is deep enough for that.

In a league that has become pass happy, the Vikings are really struggling in the air. Percy Harvin is one of the team’s two best playmaking threats, and he needs the ball in his hands a lot more than it has been. Same goes for Adrian Peterson really. If Donovan McNabb can’t find Harvin, the Vikings need to put in a quarterback who can.

So why did Tracy Stallard talk?

I’ve fielded this question almost every time I told one of my friends the long story about tracking down the man who gave up Roger Maris‘ 61st home run in 1961. Now 74, Tracy Stallard lives in Wise, Va., which isn’t far from where he grew up.

I did a couple of different interviews with Stallard for my Saturday story. He has become notorious for his ability to avoid the interview, leading to some major publications – including the New York Times – to publish stories about him not returning phone calls during Mark McGwire’s pursuit of Maris’ record in 1998.

I think there’s two reasons why he chose to talk to me. 1) He was in Fargo for the Roger Maris Celebrity Golf Tournament in 1987 and had a good experience talking to The Forum reporter who interviewed him at the time. 2) He said our first interview went well and that, “You’re the only one I talked to and the only one I’m going to talk to.”

I’ve had some cool assignments while working at The Forum. I’ve met and interviewed Cy Young-winning pitcher Johan Santana, NHRA legend John Force and NASCAR Cup champion Kurt Busch. And I’ve interviewed tennis stars Andre Agassi and Andy Roddick over the phone. But tracking down Stallard and getting a story from him is one of the things I’m most proud of.

What would I do if I were in charge with the Twins?

I’ll have to expand on this in an upcoming post. First off, I don’t re-sign free agents Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. I know that’s a tough pill for some Twins fans to swallow in Cuddyer’s case, but that’s how I feel. He had a great season, but I’d thank him for it and move on. The Twins would be buying high on Cuddyer after his 2011 season, and I think the team has done way too much of that lately. He just doesn’t fit into my blueprint for the type of team I think the Twins need to win a title at Target Field.

To build a winner, I think the Twins need swing-and-miss pitching (which they don’t have), speed in the outfield (which they have some of), and solid defense and run producers in the infield (which when healthy they have a little of). So there’s a lot of needs. Fortunately, though, the Twins should have about $30 million to play with.

My main focus would be starting pitching help. Gone are the days where simply having strike throwers like Nick Blackburn and Kevin Slowey is enough. It’s time to bid good-bye to these guys (I can’t believe I’m finally giving up on Slowey). This area must be upgraded. And the Twins need to take a page from the Tampa Bay Rays and figure out how to rebuild that bullpen in one year.

Week 4 NFL picks

I had a 3-2 week last week to put me at 8-7 for the season. Here are my picks for this week:

Cleveland by 1.5 vs. Tennessee: Browns

Buffalo by 3 at Cincinnati: Bills

New England by 6 at Oakland: Patriots

Baltimore by 3.5 vs. New York Jets: Jets

Indianapolis by 10 vs. Tampa Bay: Colts

Twins still looking for next Gagne, and some NFL picks

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I bought a copy of the 1991 World Series on DVD a few months ago, but for some reason, I hadn’t started watching it until earlier this week.

I finished Game 1 between the Minnesota Twins and Atlanta Braves a couple of nights ago. It’s amazing, even though I was only 10 when it happened, how well I remember those games.

Greg Gagne

Twenty years later, and the Minnesota Twins still haven't replaced Greg Gagne, center. Associated Press

And when I hear that theme music that CBS used when its World Series logo would come on the screen, boy, it takes you back to all the games you watched back then. The Francisco Cabrera hit for Atlanta to knock Pittsburgh out of the NLCS in 1992. The Joe Carter homer in the 1993 World Series. And, of course, the 1991 World Series.

The Twins got homers from Kent Hrbek and Greg Gagne in Game 1, with Gagne’s three-run shot being the biggest in the 5-2 victory. At the time, Gagne held the Twins record for postseason homers with four.

And it left me thinking this: “Have the Twins ever replaced Gagne?”

Pat Reusse of the Minneapolis Star Tribune had a doomsday column on the Twins earlier this week. And he specifically points out that the Twins’ slide of the 1990s coincides with the decision to let Gagne go.

The Twins have had a couple of solid shortstops since then, like Cristian Guzman and Jason Bartlett. But it always seemed like those guys didn’t fill the leadership role that manager Ron Gardenhire wants out of his shortstop. Bartlett was often in the doghouse, and soon enough he was shipped to Tampa Bay and helped the Rays to a World Series berth.

It’s not like Gagne was this irreplaceable player, although he and Kirby Puckett were my two favorite players on those World Series teams growing up.

Gagne was great defensively, but he never won a Gold Glove. He had a little pop (especially in big moments), but he never hit more than 14 homers in a season. He seemed to have good command of the infield, though Puckett and Hrbek got the headlines.

Doesn’t seem like it would be 20 years later and he still hasn’t been replaced. But after watching Trevor Plouffe play defense in Game 1 of today’s doubleheader, it’s safe to say the Twins are still searching for the next Gagne.

Week 3 NFL picks

I had a really rough week last week, going 1-4. That puts me at 5-5 for the season thanks to a strong Week 1.

Here are the Week 3 picks:

Lions by 4 at Vikings: Lions

Panthers by 3.5 vs. Jaguars: Panthers

Ravens by 4 at Rams: Ravens

Cardinals by 3 at Seahawks: Cardinals

Steelers by 11 at Colts: Colts